Carga de enfermedad por tabaquismo e impacto potencial del incremento de precios de cigarrillos en el Perú / Burden of smoking-related disease and potential impact of cigarette price increase in Peru

RESUMEN Objetivos . Estimar la carga de enfermedad asociada al tabaquismo y evaluar el potencial impacto económico y en salud del aumento de los impuestos a los cigarrillos en el Perú. Materiales y métodos. Mediante un modelo de microsimulación se estimó el impacto en mortalidad, calidad de vida y costos atribuibles al tabaquismo por enfermedad cardiaca y cerebrovascular, enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica, neumonía, cáncer de pulmón y otras nueve neoplasias. Se evaluaron tres escenarios de aumento de impuestos. Resultados . Un total anual de 16 719 muertes, 6926 diagnósticos de cáncer, 7936 accidentes cerebrovasculares y 7548 hospitalizaciones por enfermedad cardiovascular se pueden atribuir al tabaquismo en Perú. Asimismo, se pierden 396 069 años de vida por muerte prematura y discapacidad cada año, y el costo de tratar los problemas de salud ocasionados por el tabaco asciende a 2500 millones de soles (PEN 2015). Actualmente, los impuestos al tabaco llegan a cubrir solamente el 9,1% de dicho gasto. Un incremento del 50% en el precio de los cigarrillos podría evitar 13 391 muertes, 6210 eventos cardiovasculares y 5361 nuevos cánceres en los próximos diez años, y representaría un beneficio económico de 3145 millones (PEN) por ahorro de costos sanitarios y aumento de la recaudación impositiva. Conclusiones . La carga de enfermedad y el costo para el sistema de salud asociados al tabaquismo son elevados en Perú. Incrementar los impuestos al cigarrillo podría derivar en importantes beneficios para el país, tanto sanitarios como económicos.

ABSTRACT Objectives . To calculate the burden of smoking-related disease and evaluate the potential economic and health impact of tax-induced cigarette price increase in Peru. Materials and methods. A microsimulation model was used to estimate smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs associated with heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, lung cancer, and another nine cancers. Three scenarios, involving increased taxes, were evaluated. Results . A yearly total of 16,719 deaths, 6,926 cancer diagnoses, 7,936 strokes, and 7,548 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking in Peru. Similarly, 396,069 years of life are lost each year from premature death and disability, and the cost of treating smoking-attributable health issues rises to 2,500 million soles (PEN 2015). Currently, taxes on tobacco cover only 9.1% of this expense. If cigarette prices were to increase by 50% over the next 10 years, 13,391 deaths, 6,210 cardiovascular events, and 5,361 new cancers could be prevented, representing an economic benefit of 3,145 million (PEN) in savings in health costs and increases in tax revenues. Conclusions . Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Peru. Higher cigarette taxes could have substantial health and economic benefits for the country.

[Burden of smoking-related disease and potential impact of cigarette price increase in Peru]. / Carga de enfermedad por tabaquismo e impacto potencial del incremento de precios de cigarrillos en el Perú.

OBJECTIVES: . To calculate the burden of smoking-related disease and evaluate the potential economic and health impact of tax-induced cigarette price increase in Peru. MATERIALS AND METHODS.: A microsimulation model was used to estimate smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs associated with heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, lung cancer, and another nine cancers. Three scenarios, involving increased taxes, were evaluated. RESULTS: . A yearly total of 16,719 deaths, 6,926 cancer diagnoses, 7,936 strokes, and 7,548 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking in Peru. Similarly, 396,069 years of life are lost each year from premature death and disability, and the cost of treating smoking-attributable health issues rises to 2,500 million soles (PEN 2015). Currently, taxes on tobacco cover only 9.1% of this expense. If cigarette prices were to increase by 50% over the next 10 years, 13,391 deaths, 6,210 cardiovascular events, and 5,361 new cancers could be prevented, representing an economic benefit of 3,145 million (PEN) in savings in health costs and increases in tax revenues. CONCLUSIONS: . Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Peru. Higher cigarette taxes could have substantial health and economic benefits for the country.

Burden and typing of rotavirus group A in Latin America and the Caribbean: systematic review and meta-analysis.

The efficacy of licensed rotavirus vaccines has only been shown against certain rotavirus group A (RV-A) types. It is critical to understand the burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) and its prevalent types to assess the potential impact of these vaccines in Latin America and the Caribbean (LA&C). We performed a systematic review and meta-analyses of all the available evidence reported from 1990 to 2009 on the burden of rotavirus disease and strains circulating in LA&C. Eligible studies--185 country-level reports, 174 951 faecal samples--were selected from MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, LILACS, regional Ministries of Health, PAHO, regional proceedings, doctoral theses, reference lists of included studies and consulting experts. Arc-sine transformations and DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model were used for meta-analyses. The proportion of gastroenteritis cases due to rotavirus was 24.3% (95%CI 22.3-26.4) and the incidence of RVGE was 170 per 1000 children-years (95%CI 130-210). We estimated a global annual mortality for 22 countries of 88.2 (95%CI 79.3-97.1) deaths per 100 000 under 5 years (47 000 deaths).The most common G type detected was G1 (34.2%), followed by G9 (14.6%), and G2 (14.4%). The most common P types detected were P[8] (56.2%), P[4] (22.1%) and P[1] 5.4%, and the most prevalent P-G type associations were P[8]G1 17.9%, P[4]G2 9.1% and P[8]G9 8.8%. In the last 10 years, G9 circulation increased remarkably and G5 almost disappeared. More recently, G12 appeared and P[4]G2 re-emerged. To our knowledge, this is the first meta-analysis of rotavirus infection and burden of disease in LA&C.